Time for another prediction post with Drew from Crunching Through My Day. We made predictions for both May and June…so let’s see how things go for the month of July! We’ve both got birthdays at the end of the month, so I know we’d like to see some wins on those days. I’ll present the first half of the month here, and Drew will show us the rest of the month later this week.
7/3-5 vs San Francisco Giants
Drew: Well now, the G-men have really come on lately and taken the NL West by storm. Does this scare me? Yes actually. It does. The Giants just swept the Dodgers (which killed the Nats back in in May.) In many other ways, the Nats and Giants are similar. Their pitching staffs (staves? What’s the rule here?) are about K/9 and HR/9. The Nat’s pitching staff provides a few extra WAR while the Giants offense beats the Nat’s in that category. However, with the heat and a tough road trip against the Braves, plus the bottom half of the Nats rotation coming up, I’m going to say the Giants take 2 of the three games. However, the Nat will win on the 4th of July to support Truth, Justice, and The Natiude Way!
Maggie: There is nothing in this world that makes me sadder than missing the Lincecum-Zimmermann matchup tonight. The game should be epic. Drew has said with stats and whatnot what I see with my eyes: the Giants are a team that is coming on strong in the middle of the summer, and they should be rightly feared. Not enough where I don’t think the Nats will take a game…but appropriately feared. Nats lose the series, 1-2.
Drew: The Nat’s took advantage of the thin air (is the humidor still on?) in Colorado to awaken their anemic offense. I have a feeling that the bats will slow a bit in the warm confines of DC but that the Nats will still beat up on the Rockies. I know the Rockies are probably better than their record indicates but I can’t be much. When Jamie Moyer is your staff ace at the start of the season, there’s not a lot good things I can (besides the 4.11 FIP and .340 opponent BABIP say enough). I’m going to say 2-1.
Maggie: Sure, we split the series with the basement-dwellers, but that was at the end of a long series of road trips and homestands against the toughest divisions (the Easts) in baseball. Can you blame them for “taking a break” and “only” scoring 35 runs during that series? I have a feeling that once the Nats are back in their stadium, with the top of their lineup that the distinction between best and worst in the NL will become quite clear. Nats sweep, 3-0.
Drew: As much as I like the pageantry surrounding the All Star game, I’ve got to admit that the AL is probably going to win this year. They spanked in the NL in interleague play. I want my NL to win but I’m not going to hold out hope.
Maggie: This is another place where I agree with Drew. I love that the Nats have 3 players (maybe 4?) in the fight, but when the AL spanks the NL in interleague play, it doesn’t bode well for a reversal at the All Star game.
7/13-16 @ Miami Marlins
Drew: Miami has been a real disappointment so far. I spent the offseason worried that they might steal the last playoff spot from the Nats. Of course that was before the Phillies free fell into almost nothing. Since then, the Marlins have gotten lucky. They should be about even with Houston and Colorado in terms of wins. Their pitching has been pretty awful, with the lowest K/9 rate and opponents BABIP of nearly .300. Despite that, I don’t think the Nats can sweep this series. Due to the vagaries in the tea leaves and baseball, I’m saying we split the series 2-2
Maggie: More Miami hate from me. Watching them suck it up this year has been nearly as enjoyable as watching the Phillies tank. And because the Nats seem to do well when they play in Florida, I’ll expect them to continue to kick butt and take names in Miami. Nats take it 3-1.
Look for the last half of July later…